In his interaction with People Matters, Dr. Naresh Malhan, Head of India Operations, Manpower shares the key findings of the Manpower Outlook Survey for Q1, 2010

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is more a forecast of the future, where in Manpower contacts about 5,000 employers across industries in 30 cities in the country. The survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.

The key findings of the Manpower Outlook Survey carried out for the first quarter of 2010 are:

For the seventh consecutive quarter, India continues to be seen as a preferred place for seeking jobs. India is fast becoming numero uno across the globe from amongst all the 35 countries we survey globally. Of the 35 countries surveyed, 25 countries are in a positive arena which earlier used to be a low figure. Out of 15 countries, which in previous quarter said that they are going to be in negative hiring, only 9 are left now.

In India, this particular forecasted quarter is showing a substantial improvement over the previous quarter and is almost reaching at par with what it was in 2007. “Hiring expectations in India continue to be optimistic. As Indian employers continue to express growing confidence, we are witnessing improved opportunities for job seekers across all industry sectors. Employers indicate that hiring in India’s Services sector will accelerate at a dynamic pace in the months ahead,” said Dr. Naresh Malhan.

The sectors which are showing phenomenal growth and employment opportunity are Services, the Public Administration & Education, the Mining & Construction, the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector.
Service sector is about 50% of GDP of the economy and includes hospitality industry, professional services, telecom, IT & ITes, health care services, security services, intelligence et al. So if the services sector is showing a major growth (it has moved up from 27 to 47), it reflects a very promising state. It is very heartening to see growth happening in the most important sector; it had gone as low as about 19 in the third quarter of this financial year. So, the level from which it has picked up is very promising.

Financial services and Insurance is more opening up at entry level but all others are opening up at all levels and that’s a good change. Now, what will happen in insurance is that once the entry level positions get filled and growth is happening, they would need next level of managers to hire and we expect that to boost hiring.

Transportation & Utility Services is perhaps one sector, which has not yet witnessed much growth despite the fact that due to Common Wealth Games, there would be an up surge. Vaguely, it must have got compounded in the overall statistics of the Northern region. But quite unusually, the Northern region is turning out to be the most promising region in terms of hiring and principally it is explained because of the Common Wealth Games. Games would provide employment opportunity almost till mid of 2011, because winding up too will take some time.

While India is very promising in terms of hiring; the region following India is APAC. The only big country in the APAC region which is showing a downward trend is Japan. Singapore, Taiwan and Australia are all in the upstream.
For 2010, going by current trends of last six months where companies have performed and the government has inducted various stimulus in the market place, one would begin to see a rising graph unless something radical happens.

India Employment Outlook

The Manpower Employment for the first quarter 2010 was conducted by inter-viewing representative sample of 5.109 employers in India. All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2010 as compared to the current quarter?”

Brisk hiring activity is anticipated by Indian employees during the upcoming quarter. With 38% of employers expecting total employment to increase, 2% forecasting a decrease and 53% predicting no change, the net Employment Outlook is a robust +36%.

Through this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the net Employment Outlook.
While the Outlook only improves by a slight 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, it is a considerable 18 percentage points stronger year-over-year. Once seasonal adjustment is added to the data, the Outlook stands at +39%. The Outlook improves considerably both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 11 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

REGIONAL COMPARISONS

Headcount gains are forecasted in all four regions during Quarter 1 2010. Employers in the North report bullish hiring plan, with a Net Employment Outlook of +44%, and the East, with both Outlooks at +40%, In the South, the outlook is a robust +36%.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have strengthened in all four regions, most notably by 16 percentage points in the North. The Outlook improves by a considerable 13 percentage points in the West, by 9 percentage points in the South and by 8 percentage points in the East.

Comparison with Quarter 1 2009 also reveals stronger hiring prospects in all four regions. There is a sharp 24 percentage point improvement in the Outlook reported for the North, while in the West; the Outlook improves by 20 percentage points. In the East, the Outlook is 19 percentage points stronger, and in the South, it improves by 10 percentage points.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all four regions forecast robust headcount gains during Quarter 1 2010, with booming hiring prospects reported by employers in the north. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook is considerably stronger in the north, West and South regions. Year-over-year, the Outlook is considerably stronger in all four regions.

North

Employers in the North report bullish hiring plans for Quarter 1 2010 with a net Employment Outlook of +44%. Hiring intentions have improved by a considerable 16 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and the outlook increases by a sharp 24 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast vigorous hiring activity in the upcoming quarter, hiring prospects are considerably stronger quarter-over-quarter, and improve sharply year-over-year.

South

With a Net Employment Outlook of +36%, employers anticipate a prosperous labor market in Quarter 1 2010. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by 9 percentage points, while year-over-year it strengthens by percentage points.
Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report bright hiring prospects for Quarter 1 2010. Although the Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, there is a considerable improvement year-over-year.

East

Employers forecast a booming labor market in Quarter 1 2010. The Net Employment Outlook of +40% is the strongest in the region since Quarter 3 2006, and has improved both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 8 and 19 percentage points, respectively.

Based on the unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate brisk activity in the forthcoming quarter, and while the Outlook is only slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter, it improves considerably year-over-year.

West

In the West, employers forecast a dynamic hiring climate for the upcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +40%. Hiring intentions in the region improve by a considerable 13 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, while year-over-year, the Outlook is 20 percentage points stronger.

Based on the unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate prosperous headcount growth in the upcoming quarter. Hiring plans are slightly stronger when compared to Quarter 4 2009, and strengthen sharply year-over-year.

SECTOR COMPARISONS

Employers in all seven industry sectors anticipate headcount growth during Quarter 1 2010. The most dynamic hiring environment is forecast in the Services sector, where employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +47%. Bullish hiring intentions are also evident in the Public Administration & Education sector, where the Outlook is +43%. In the Mining & Construction sector, the Outlook is a robust +38%, while in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, employers report Outlooks of +37%.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions are stronger in all seven industry sectors. The most notable improvement of 20 percentage points in the Services sector, and there is a 16 percentage point increase in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector Outlook. Considerable improvements of 10 percentage points are also reported for both the Public Administration & Education sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector.

When compared to Quarter 1 2009, the outlook is considerably stronger in all seven industry sectors. Employers in the Public Administration & Education sector and the Service sector report sharp increases of 25 and 23 percentage points, respectively, while in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, the Outlook is 22 percentage points stronger.

Based on the unadjusted survey data, employers report positive hiring prospects in all industry sectors. Booming labor markets are predicted in the Services sector and in the public Administration & Education sector. Quarter-over-quarter, outlooks are slightly weaker in five sectors, but year-over-year, hiring intentions are considerably stronger in all seven.

Finance, Insurance &Real Estate

With a Net Employment Outlook Of +37%, employers anticipate robust headcount growth during Quarter 1 2010. Hiring prospects in the sector are considerably stronger, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, improving by 16 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a bright hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook is moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter, and improves considerably when compared to Quarter 1 2009.

Mining & Construction

Sector employers forecast a prosperous labor market in Quarter 1 2010, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +38%. Hiring plans have strengthened both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with the Outlook improving by 7 and 13 percentage points, respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, a bright hiring climate is forecast. While there is a slight decline in the Outlook quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year it is considerably stronger.

Manufacturing

Bright hiring prospects are forecast for the sector in Quarter 1 2010. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +33%, reflecting improvements of 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 13 percentage points year-over-year.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report optimistic hiring plans for the upcoming quarter. Prospects for job seekers are relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, and are considerably stronger year-over-year.
 

Public Admin/ Education

Employers anticipate a bullish hiring climate in quarter 1 2010, reporting the strongest hiring prospects in the sector since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005. The Net Employment Outlook of +43% is 10 percentage points stronger quarter-over-quarter, and improves by a steep 25 percentage points when compared to Quarter 1 2009.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast vigorous hiring activity in the upcoming quarter. The outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but improves sharply year-over-year.

Services

Sector employers forecast a booming labor market for the upcoming quarter, with a Net Employment outlook of +47%. Hiring prospects have strengthened sharply both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with the outlook improving by 20 and 23 percentage points respectively.

Based on unadjusted survey data, bullish hiring plans are evident for the upcoming quarter. The outlook remains is considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Transportation & Utilities

Solid hiring activity is anticipated in the sector during Quarter 1 2010, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +28%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by a slight 4 percentage points, while year-over-year it strengthens by 11 percentage points.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast an active labor market in Quarter 1 2010. Hiring plans are moderately weaker when compared to the previous quarter, but are considerably stronger year-over-year.

Wholesale & Retail Trade

With Net Employment Outlook of +37%, employers anticipate a brisk hiring pace in Quarter 1 2010. The Outlook is 10 percent points stronger that in the previous quarter, and improves by a sharp 22 percentage points year-over-year.
Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report robust hiring plans for the upcoming quarter, and while the Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-by-quarter, it is sharply improved year-over-year.