As pandemics, artificial intelligence, climate emergencies and geopolitical conflicts continue to reshape economies and workplaces, experts at the International Labour Organization are urging governments, employers and trade unions to move beyond reacting to crises and instead build the capacity to anticipate disruption before it unfolds.
Speaking on the latest episode of the ILO’s “Future of Work” podcast, Rafael Peels, Specialist in Workers’ Activities at the ILO’s Bureau for Workers’ Activities (ACTRAV), said disruption has become the “new normal” in the global world of work, making long-term strategic thinking more urgent than ever.
Peels described “strategic foresight” as a methodology designed to help organisations prepare for uncertainty by identifying emerging trends, exploring multiple future scenarios, and building resilience against unexpected shocks. He argued that while businesses and institutions have traditionally relied on contingency planning for specific crises, strategic foresight takes a broader approach by preparing organisations to deal with a range of possible futures.
The discussion highlighted how recent global crises, including wars, pandemics, technological upheaval and climate-related disasters, have exposed the vulnerability of labour markets and institutions that were unprepared for rapid disruption.
According to Peels, organisations must develop what he called the “mental muscle” needed to navigate complexity, uncertainty and sudden change.
The ILO is currently adapting strategic foresight tools specifically for the world of work, with a focus on workers’ and employers’ organisations. These tools include horizon scanning to identify long-term drivers of change, scenario development to test optimistic and pessimistic future outcomes, and road mapping to help organisations determine what actions must be taken today to prepare for or avoid future scenarios.
Artificial intelligence is also increasingly being integrated into the process. Peels explained that AI can support foresight exercises by analysing trends, identifying weak signals, generating future scenarios, and even creating immersive simulations through visuals, videos and interactive experiences. However, he stressed that human judgement remains central to interpreting and making sense of these insights.
Trade unions and employer representatives participating in recent ILO foresight workshops echoed the growing need for future-oriented planning.
Melissa Ansell Bridges of the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions said traditional planning tools are no longer sufficient in an era marked by rapid technological and economic transformation. She noted that strategic foresight helps unions prepare for multiple possible futures while making more effective decisions about resource allocation, workforce skills and organisational priorities.
Meanwhile, Đorđo Borović from the Montenegrin Employers Federation pointed to the difficulties many small businesses face in dedicating time and resources to long-term planning while managing daily operational pressures. He said international collaboration and institutional support are critical to helping organisations adopt foresight strategies and strengthen resilience.
Peels also underlined the broader social implications of disruption. He warned that vulnerable workers often bear the greatest burden during periods of economic and technological shock, making preparedness essential not only for organisational survival but also for protecting decent work and social justice.
As uncertainty increasingly defines the global labour market, the ILO argues that strategic foresight is no longer optional.
Instead, it is becoming an essential capability for governments, employers and workers seeking to shape a more resilient and inclusive future of work.