Artificial intelligence could boost the value of global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% over the next two decades, but also risk deepening economic divides if left unmanaged, the World Trade Organization said in its annual World Trade Report released on Wednesday.
The Geneva-based trade body projected that lower costs and higher productivity from AI adoption could increase global trade by between 34% and 37% by 2040. Global GDP could also rise by as much as 12% to 13% over the same period, the report noted, according to Reuters.
“AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment,” WTO Deputy Director General Johanna Hill said at the launch of the report. She argued that artificial intelligence is already reshaping the global economy by lowering transaction costs, improving efficiency and creating new opportunities for businesses of all sizes.
The WTO highlighted areas where AI is already making an impact, including logistics, compliance and communications. Automated systems can cut freight and customs clearance costs, while machine learning tools improve inventory management and demand forecasting.
“AI-driven translation technologies can make communication faster and more cost-effective, particularly benefiting small producers and retailers by enabling them to expand into global markets,” the report said.
The potential gains could be especially significant for developing economies. The WTO estimated that export growth in low-income countries could increase by as much as 11% if digital infrastructure is improved alongside AI adoption. This, it argued, could help integrate more countries into global supply chains and reduce barriers to trade.
Despite the opportunities, the WTO cautioned that AI’s benefits are not guaranteed. “The effects of the development and deployment of AI are raising concerns that many workers, and even entire economies, could be left behind,” the report said.
Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva that governments would need to prepare for significant labour market disruption. “AI could upend labour markets, transforming some jobs whilst displacing others. Managing these shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets,” she said.
The report also noted that AI could concentrate advantages in economies and companies with stronger technological capacities, leaving less developed markets at risk of exclusion unless corrective policies are pursued.
The WTO said that predictable global trade rules, lower tariffs on raw materials and stronger cross-border cooperation would be critical to ensure AI delivers inclusive gains. Semiconductors and other key inputs to AI technologies were singled out as areas where lower trade barriers could accelerate global adoption.
The organisation argued that the multilateral trading system remains an important foundation for spreading AI’s benefits widely. “Targeted investment and inclusive policies are essential if we want AI to support shared prosperity rather than exacerbate existing inequalities,” the report said.
The warning comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies. The Wall Street Journal noted that the global trading system has been under strain after the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a series of tariffs earlier this year, further complicating the WTO’s efforts to uphold a rules-based framework.