Crystal ball gazing: Preparing your organisation for the fintech talent of 2030

The more things change, the more they remain the same. This article explores what's likely to shift and what will not in the fintech talent landscape. But before forecasting talent trends, it’s useful to examine the macro factors influencing the sector, specifically technology, geopolitics, and demographic changes. Of these, geopolitics and demographics move slower and are less likely to have a profound impact on talent.

The most dominant theme on everyone's mind is technology and AI. Yet, every major innovation initially over-promises, under-delivers, and eventually finds its true level. Just as the metaverse wave some years ago promised to redefine how we live and work, AI is currently at the peak of its hype cycle.

Well before 2030, we're likely to see a significant filtering where many companies are pruned from the AI race. Looking beyond that culling, AI will still fundamentally change the talent landscape. The mainstream view, that AI heralds a 'job-ocalypse' where we’ll soon all be out of work, has a sound basis: as the cost of compute tends toward zero, a job's worth depends on the cost of replacing it.

However, what's often overlooked is that economic activity will explode. As our world changes and adapts, newer consumer trends will emerge. Smart entrepreneurs will leverage these opportunities and grow new organisations. This implies that the nature of individual economic activity could revert to a model seen a century ago, where large companies were rare or non-existent, and the world was dominated by tradesmen, merchants, and guilds.

There will be job losses of the familiar 9-to-5 variety, but these will be replaced by entrepreneurs, creators, and builders who successfully ride the waves of innovation. This emerging future is likely to manifest as the following key macro trends:

1. Human + AI Combination Prevails: There are ongoing debates about when AI will automate which jobs, and irrespective of the specific role, automation is a matter of when, not if. While a dedicated computer program generally does outperform any human on its own, no AI will be able to beat a "human + AI" combination. As prompt engineering has already demonstrated, deep domain expertise allows skilled professionals to leverage AI for greater impact. Individuals with deep skills and the ability to leverage AI will surpass anyone who can do only one of the two things.
   
   

2. Smaller, Flatter, and Faster Organisations: Teams possessing deep domain skills and the ability to leverage technology will disrupt slower-moving organisations. The need to pivot quickly necessitates faster decision-making, leading organisations to become smaller and flatter. Advanced productivity tools will be ubiquitous and less reliant on humans for data recording. This will bring the assembly-line effect (where supervisors could easily anticipate bottlenecks) to white-collar people management. Managerial spans will become larger; the average ratio of one manager for eight team members, considered normal today, is likely to shift to 1:12 or even more. Correspondingly, organisations will likely lose a few levels, potentially moving from eight to perhaps four or five. Small technology companies will increasingly disrupt larger organisations.
   
   

3. Increased Risk Management and Regulatory Oversight: As economic opportunities explode and entrepreneurs deploy technology in disruptive new ways, it will become vital to ensure a fair playing field and protect the interests of consumers and citizens. Risk management, regulatory oversight, and compliance monitoring will increase considerably. Governments, regulators, and academia are embracing it in ways that will fundamentally alter the regulatory technology landscape.

Now coming to the implications of macro trends on the talent landscape:

● Engineering is the Entry Ticket: Having great engineers and engineering teams will be the essential "ticket to play". Deep domain experts who can think in first principles will be vital for success.

● Skills Over Credentials: At the entry level, credentials and pedigree may continue to matter a lot, but this will quickly give way to skills and ability at more experienced levels. At mid-career levels and beyond, credentials and pedigree will become secondary or even irrelevant.

● High-Density Core Talent: Talent possessing very high learning agility and eagerness to try new things will form the core of organisations. Companies will aim to have a core of high-density talent.

● Early-Stage Company Preference: Disruptive start-ups will create wealth earlier for professionals who take risks early. This will cause the most talented professionals to favour early-stage companies over larger players.

● Eroding Loyalty: Loyalty will take a back seat. The venture capital mindset will cascade to candidates, who will weigh their commitment to the organisation every time the product-market fit comes under pressure. This will also be a reciprocation of organisations that hire and fire based on their cash flow and ability to redeploy skills during pivots.

● Compensation Shifts: ESOPs and Long-Term Incentives (LTIs) will dominate the pay mix. However, players with slower ESOP growth will have to offer more cash to compensate for attracting quality talent.

● New Industries Emerge: An industry will emerge around ESOPs, a growing source of income for more professionals – from benchmarking to administrators, service providers, lawyers, tax planners, and advisors. Another industry will emerge around tools and apps that allow collaboration and productivity. More real-time data sharing and oversight will allow for the pooling of larger teams and skills to collaborate and solve complex problems quickly.

● Growth in Risk and Compliance Roles: Risk, regulatory, and compliance jobs will grow in proportion to the fintech evolution. Government and quasi-government bodies will become substantially larger to respond to the dynamism of the sector. Professionals possessing these skills will move and cross-pollinate the government, NGOs, academia, and the private sector.

More than anything else changing, the pace of change is definitely going to get faster every year.