5 technology predictions for the post-COVID-19 era

Academics and business gurus are desperately analyzing what has happened over the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, seeking to discover “the magic answer” - what we should do to succeed in the future. They have collected vast arrays of data, analyzed them, and derived predictions. And, guess what! Many have concluded that (a) more people will work from home, (b) the nature of business interactions and processes will change, (c) we will become more technology dependent, (d) businesses will become more dispersed, and (e) the center of cities will evolve. Did it really take an army of PhD’s to work that out? And, is that even helpful? 

Many of the predictions based on analysis of the past completely miss the point. I love the quotation, often attributed (probably incorrectly) to Henry Ford, “If I had built my company based on research and analysis, I would have bred huge fast horses.” 

Those who are highly successful don’t spend their time trying to predict the future merely by extrapolating how the past was handled. Instead they recognize that all substantial change arises out of either crises or someone’s crazy imagination of a step change. They then prepare themselves to handle those situations and create their own future. Indeed, the organizations who are performing best in the current crisis are those that (a) invested in excellent management and leadership skills, (b) listened to the news and realized that some crisis or other was inevitable, (c) structured their organizations, their processes, and their funding to be resilient to a crisis, and (d) used scenario planning to develop their staff to manage a crisis, any crisis!

Many currently strong organizations already had remote working in place, had been using collaboration technology for nearly a decade; had appointed people into management who wanted to be managers and had the skills to succeed; had developed agile and innovative processes; and constantly reviewed the power of contemporary technology, and deployed it to maximum effect. So, what next? 

My contention is that mediocre companies will continue to chase the pack or so-called “best practices.” They will build hybrid organizations with essential face-to-face roles in fixed locations but many more workers performing from home or locations of their choice. They will assume that remote working, as currently understood, is here to stay and will invest in the now common meeting and collaboration technologies. 

I also contend that they will pay the price in the longer term for the impact of those decisions. Cognitive and emotional distance combined with the tiredness, that remote working appears to trigger, will lead to further declines in already unacceptably low levels of employee engagement and productivity. The current uptick in management connectivity with their staff will decline as the novelty decreases and pressures for cost savings and increased sales rise exponentially. Remote working also creates challenges for managers in terms of monitoring and assessing individual performance, especially in terms of how the work is done and the skill development of remote staff. So, decisions about development, promotion, and reward will become increasingly difficult and flawed. 

Organizations that will be most successful in the future will be those that take away this major learning from COVID-19 - out of the four characteristics of our current era (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous), Volatility and Uncertainty potentially cause the greatest damage ...and offer the biggest opportunities

However, I believe organizations that will be most successful in the future will be those that take away the major learning from COVID-19 – out of the four characteristics of our current era (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous), Volatility and Uncertainty potentially cause the greatest damage … and offer the biggest opportunities.

Those who are highly successful don't spend their time trying to predict the future merely by extrapolating how the past was handled. Instead they recognize that all substantial change arises out of either crises or someone's crazy imagination of a step change.

COVID-19 has been a wake-up call for the world, countries, organizations, and individuals. We now understand that crises happen and they will happen in the future. It has triggered previously unimaginable uses of technology in all walks of life. This could lead to one of the most existing, potentially scary, phases of HR technology evolution. You heard it here first! So, watch this space.