Artificial intelligence could affect around 40% of jobs worldwide, with young workers facing particular risks as entry-level opportunities shrink, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned during the annual IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok.
According to Bloomberg, Georgieva described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” for the labour market, warning that its effects extend beyond employment to government finances. CNBC reported her concerns over the disappearance of routine jobs traditionally used by young people to enter the workforce and progress into more senior roles.
Young workers face pressure as entry-level jobs shrink
Georgieva said AI is taking over routine and repetitive tasks, reducing demand for workers in roles that have traditionally provided an entry point into employment.
“Young people that are coming into the labour market” are among those most at risk, she said, according to CNBC. Such jobs have historically allowed new entrants to gain experience and move up the career ladder.
The concern comes as AI adoption changes the types of work employers need. While the technology may create opportunities in some sectors, Georgieva cautioned that employment growth in areas such as construction, which tend to offer lower wages, does not necessarily offset the loss of other opportunities.
She described the shift towards lower-paid work as “not a story to celebrate”.
IMF estimates AI exposure at 40% of global jobs
The IMF estimates that around 40% of jobs globally could be augmented, downgraded or eliminated by AI. The extent of exposure varies significantly by income group and economic development.
The estimates cited by Georgieva indicate:
Advanced economies: Around 60% of jobs are exposed to AI.
Worldwide: Approximately 40% of jobs could be affected.
Low-income countries: Around 23% of jobs are exposed.
Georgieva cautioned against interpreting the lower exposure in low-income countries as an advantage. She said it reflects the fact that AI adoption is less advanced in these economies, rather than stronger protection against future disruption.
The estimates cover different forms of impact, including changes to job tasks and roles, rather than suggesting every exposed job will disappear.
AI could also weaken government tax revenues
Georgieva raised concerns about the impact of AI on public finances. If the technology shifts a greater share of economic gains towards capital owners and away from workers, governments could face pressure on revenues traditionally generated through labour income.
The issue adds a fiscal dimension to the employment debate. Governments may need to consider how tax systems respond if AI changes the distribution of income between workers and owners of capital.
The IMF chief also warned last week in Singapore that an uneven AI investment boom was widening global inequality, with benefits largely bypassing countries outside the AI hardware supply chain.
World Bank leaders call for stronger support for workers
At the Bangkok meetings, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s president and co-chair of the World Bank’s Jobs Council, called for labour market support introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic to become a permanent feature rather than an emergency response.
According to CNBC, he also urged governments to encourage companies to hire new graduates as demand for entry-level workers declines. Shanmugaratnam said graduate hiring in the United States had fallen “for the first time in a century” and noted that the financial return on a college degree was eroding.
World Bank President Ajay Banga highlighted the scale of the employment challenge, projecting that 1.2 billion people would reach adulthood over the next 15 years. Businesses, rather than governments, would be responsible for employing the vast majority of them, he said, according to CNBC.
AI could still support economic growth
Despite the risks to employment, Georgieva said AI could deliver substantial economic gains. The IMF projects that AI could raise annual output in advanced Asian economies by between 0.5 and 1 percentage point.
Georgieva said the potential boost could help offset economic headwinds from ageing populations in these economies. The benefits, however, will depend partly on how effectively countries manage the transition and distribute the gains.
The warnings place workforce entry, graduate hiring and public revenue among the issues governments and employers must address as AI adoption expands. The coming years will test whether investment in the technology can translate into broader economic gains while preserving pathways into work for younger generations.
