AI-exposed industries see slower hiring as adoption hits 15%–20% across major economies: Goldman Sachs

Artificial intelligence adoption is beginning to influence hiring decisions across major economies, with industries most exposed to automation recording slower employment growth, according to new research from Goldman Sachs.

The report found AI adoption in developed economies has reached approximately 15% to 20%, with France, the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom among the most advanced adopters. Adoption in major emerging markets remains lower, ranging between 10% and 15%.

While the broader labour market has yet to experience significant disruption, Goldman Sachs said the growing use of generative AI is prompting companies in highly exposed sectors to reassess recruitment plans and workforce requirements.

Hiring trends diverge in AI-sensitive sectors

According to Goldman Sachs Research, job openings in industries vulnerable to automation began slowing during the second half of 2022. The trend has been particularly visible in Germany, Australia and the United States.

The report noted a clear divergence between sectors heavily exposed to AI and those with lower exposure levels.

Key findings include:

• AI adoption across major developed economies has reached roughly 15% to 20%
• Adoption in major emerging markets stands at approximately 10% to 15%
• Hiring growth has slowed in industries with higher exposure to automation and generative AI
• The slowdown became visible from the second half of 2022
• Effects have been most pronounced in the United States, although similar patterns are emerging elsewhere

One notable finding from the research is that companies appear to be adjusting hiring strategies before large-scale workforce reductions occur, reflecting a gradual rather than abrupt response to AI adoption.

Call centres and technology services among the hardest hit

Goldman Sachs identified several sectors where hiring headwinds have become increasingly visible.

These include:

• Information and communication services
• Call centres
• Software publishing
• Consulting
• Advertising

The report found US call-centre employment was 39% below its long-run trend, while comparable figures stood at 33% below trend in Canada and 27% below trend in Germany.

Employment within US information and communication services has also fallen below historical trend levels, reinforcing evidence of changing workforce dynamics in technology-intensive industries.

Goldman Sachs stated that its findings support earlier observations that the emergence of generative AI tools may have led employers in highly exposed industries to reconsider recruitment plans.

Overall labour market impact remains limited

Despite growing attention on AI's potential effect on jobs, the research suggests the impact on overall employment remains relatively modest.

Across the United States, France and Canada, a 10% increase in occupational exposure to AI is associated with approximately a 0.1 percentage-point reduction in annual headcount growth, according to the analysis.

This suggests AI-related workforce changes remain concentrated within specific sectors rather than spreading broadly across national labour markets.

Goldman Sachs highlighted:

• AI hiring pressures remain concentrated in a narrow group of industries
• Broader labour market impacts have so far been limited
• Employment trends vary significantly between sectors and countries
• Technology-related hiring headwinds are strongest in the United States

Junior workers face greater exposure

The report also pointed to increased vulnerability among early-career employees as organisations expand the use of automation and AI-powered tools.

Junior workers often occupy roles involving routine and repeatable tasks, making them more susceptible to workflow changes driven by technology adoption.

However, Goldman Sachs stressed that current evidence does not indicate widespread labour market disruption. Instead, the effects remain concentrated among specific worker groups and occupations with higher levels of AI exposure.

As adoption rates continue to rise across advanced economies, employers, policymakers and workforce leaders are likely to monitor whether current hiring adjustments evolve into broader structural changes in employment patterns.