A looming global labour shortage, expected to reach between 45 to 50 million by 2030, presents a significant opportunity for the Indian workforce, particularly in blue-collar jobs. This alarming projection comes from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a global management consultancy, whose experts predict that countries like the United States and the United Kingdom will require millions of workers to fill gaps created by ageing populations and shrinking workforces.

Rajiv Gupta, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG, revealed these insights during the launch of the GATI Foundation in New Delhi on Tuesday. Gupta explained that 20 countries will account for 90 per cent of the global demand for workers, with the US requiring approximately 11 to 12 million workers, followed by the UK with 5 to 6 million. Other nations including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Germany, Russia, Japan, Canada, and the Netherlands are also expected to experience significant labour shortages.

The demographic shifts in many developed economies are driving this growing demand. Countries traditionally known for strict immigration policies, such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, and various Western European nations, will need to reconsider their labour markets to address shortages caused by ageing populations and low birth rates. This shift is likely to open doors for workers from countries with a younger workforce, including India.

Gupta emphasised the need for India to strategically capitalise on this global opportunity by creating a robust institutional framework. Leveraging Indian embassies and the Indian Foreign Service (IFS), the government should promote Indian talent through targeted initiatives such as roadshows, one-on-one meetings with foreign employers, and widespread information dissemination. This ‘Talent India’ promotion unit could serve as a bridge between Indian workers and global labour markets, facilitating smoother migration and employment processes.

A notable example of success in this domain is the migration agreement between Germany and the Indian state of Kerala. Under this initiative, 528 nurses from Kerala secured placements across 12 German states in 2024 alone, demonstrating the potential of targeted migration agreements in addressing labour shortages and providing employment opportunities for Indian workers.

Despite the promising prospects, significant challenges remain for Indians aspiring to work abroad. Gupta pointed out that the high cost of acquiring globally recognised skills and qualifications remains a formidable barrier for many. To overcome this, he urged the Indian government to introduce financial assistance schemes, such as low-interest loans or scholarships, specifically aimed at supporting individuals seeking internationally recognised certifications.