According to Dun & Bradstreet, India will become a $5.6-trillion economy, from $1.73 trillion in FY11, by 2020. The three-fold increase in the GDP will be primarily on the back of rapid investment, growing consumer expenditure and infrastructure spending. Apart from the primary drivers as mentioned above, growth would also depend on policy measures – direct cash subsidy, UID, MNREGA, national manufacturing policy, FDI in retail and insurance, environmental policy and others. It is estimated that the share of discretionary spending will increase to 72 percent of private consumption expenditure from the current levels of 60 percent over the aforementioned time period.
Dun & Bradstreet’s report ‘India 2020’ also states that Maharashtra, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh will be amongst the most developed states in the country by 2020 and would together contribute 32 percent to the overall GDP. At the same time, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Orissa & Uttar Pradesh will contribute to about 24 percent of the GDP by FY’20 as compared to 21 percent during FY’10. It goes without saying that a better coordination between the centre and the states will further help remove the bottlenecks and fuel growth.